基于博弈论的化工园区合作巡逻策略研究

化工园区的生产活动对周围的大气环境和居民健康构成了巨大威胁,需要园区管理团队对化学生产过程和气体排放进行严格监管以保证空气质量,对各化工厂进行巡逻是一种有效的方法。基于博弈论研究多辆巡逻车的合作巡逻策略,提出了贪婪部署算法确定巡逻车的初始部署,采取静态分区的合作方法将化工园区划分成多个小区域,在化工厂和巡逻车之间构建巡逻博弈模型,通过MultiLPs算法计算得到博弈的Stackelberg均衡解。选取Antwerp化工园区进行案例研究,结果表明巡逻车可以将收益提高8.08%~35.24%。     

中概股企业私有化退市决策模型：基于价值低估假说

基于中概股企业私有化退市背景，分别建立了中概股企业继续海外上市与私有化退市两种情形下的企业价值模型，模拟控股股东私有化退市决策的权衡过程。结果表明：存在一个净现金流临界值，当中概股企业的净现金流大于该临界值时，继续海外上市时的企业价值更大，控股股东应选择继续海外上市；反之应选择私有化退市。中概股企业继续海外上市的资本成本率和上市维持成本越高、获取净现金流的能力越弱，净现金流临界值越高。私有化退市后的资本成本率越低以及获取净现金流的能力越强，净现金流临界值越高。最后，利用Matlab进行仿真分析并以智联招聘私有化退市为对象进行案例分析，验证了理论模型所得结论的合理性与可行性。研究结论对中概股企业私有化退市决策具有重要借鉴意义。     

多孔介质球向渗流的渗透率分形模型

基于分形理论与技术，该文研究了牛顿流体在多孔介质中球向渗流问题，提出了牛顿流体球向渗流渗透率模型，分析了多孔介质的微结构参数对球向渗透率的影响.研究结果表明，球向渗透率随孔隙面积分形维数和孔隙度的增加而增加，随迂曲度分形维数和径向距离r的增加而减小；本模型预期结果与Chang和Yortsos的模型相比较吻合较好，证实了球向渗透率分形模型的正确性.     

‘Revolutions,philosophical as well as civil’: French chemistry and American science in Samuel Latham Mitchill’s Medical Repository

ABSTRACT

From 1797 to 1801 a controversy played out on the pages of the Medical Repository, the first scientific journal published in the United States. At its centre was the well-known feud between the followers of Antoine Lavoisier and Joseph Priestley, the lone supporter of the phlogiston model. The American debate, however, had more than two sides. The Americans chemists, Samuel Latham Mitchill and Benjamin Woodhouse, who rushed to support Priestley did not defend his scientific views. Rather, as citizens of a republic, they defended his right to have them. They also castigated the assertions of the “French chemists,” whose claims that the new chemistry obviated debate seemed unsettlingly similar to the dictatorial ambitions of the French state. Using the Medical Repository, Mitchill and Woodhouse sought a compromise that validated the new chemistry, but united it with a more egalitarian form of discourse. The desired balance eluded them. Priestley proved too stubborn, and as the French Revolution descended into dictatorship and war, Mitchill and Woodhouse came more to realize that truly prising French chemistry from the culture of the revolutionary era. The episode left Mitchill and Woodhouse disillusioned with chemistry and hoping to redirect scientific enthusiasm to more pious ends.     

The material theory of induction and the epistemology of thought experiments

John D. Norton is responsible for a number of influential views in contemporary philosophy of science. This paper will discuss two of them. The material theory of induction claims that inductive arguments are ultimately justified by their material features, not their formal features. Thus, while a deductive argument can be valid irrespective of the content of the propositions that make up the argument, an inductive argument about, say, apples, will be justified (or not) depending on facts about apples. The argument view of thought experiments claims that thought experiments are arguments, and that they function epistemically however arguments do. These two views have generated a great deal of discussion, although there hasn't been much written about their combination. I argue that despite some interesting harmonies, there is a serious tension between them. I consider several options for easing this tension, before suggesting a set of changes to the argument view that I take to be consistent with Norton's fundamental philosophical commitments, and which retain what seems intuitively correct about the argument view. These changes require that we move away from a unitary epistemology of thought experiments and towards a more pluralist position.     

Debunking material induction

In this paper, we present an explanatory objection to Norton's material theory of induction, as applied to predictive inferences. According to the objection we present, there is an explanatory disconnect between our beliefs about the future and the relevant future facts. We argue that if we recognize such a disconnect, we are no longer rationally entitled to our future beliefs.     

Epistemic benefits of the material theory of induction

C. D. Broad famously labelled the problem of providing our inductive practices with a proper justification “the scandal of philosophy” (Broad, 1952). Recently, John Norton has provided a dissolution of this problem (2014). According to Norton, inductive inference is grounded in particular facts obtaining within particular domains (J. Norton, 2003b, 2010, 2014). Because the material theory does not involve a universal schema of induction, Norton claims it dissolves the problem of induction (which implies that such universal schemas cannot be justified).In this paper, I critically evaluate Norton's dissolution. In particular, I argue that the problem of induction is an epistemological problem, that Norton's material theory entails an externalist epistemology, and that it is a common feature of such epistemologies that they dissolve the problem of induction. The upshot is that the material theory is not unique in its ability to reap the specifically epistemic benefits of dissolving the problem of induction, and thus that the epistemic advantages of the material theory over extant alternatives in this regard are fewer than it may appear at first sight.     

基于解释结构模型和MICMAC的城市交通拥堵问题分析

通过对城市交通拥堵现状的调查研究,从管理、设施和交通参与者3个方面归纳出造成城市交通拥堵的11个主要因素,建立了解释结构模型,分析了各因素间的层级关系,通过交叉影响矩阵相乘法(matriced impacts corises-multiplication appliance classment, MICMAC)分析对影响因素进行了分类,进一步分析了各因素对交通拥堵的影响,找到了造成城市交通拥堵的表层、中层和底层影响因素,为缓解城市交通拥堵问题提供了可供借鉴的依据.     

无领导小组讨论在教学中的应用

无领导小组讨论自20世纪80年代传入我国至今,在各领域得到了广泛的应用。无领导小组讨论本身是一种培训工具,应用于教学具有可行性,具体实施办法有教师讲解、模拟演练、学生和教师分别点评,丰富了教学手段和方法。     

彩色多普勒超声诊断腹腔干动脉狭窄的临床价值

目的探讨彩色多普勒超声检查在评估腹腔干动脉狭窄中的价值。方法应用彩色多普勒超声诊断仪对腹痛患者的腹腔干动脉进行检查,观察的内容包括腹腔干起始段管腔有无斑块、血栓等引起的狭窄,测量腹腔干狭窄处收缩期峰值速度(peak systolic velocity,PSV)。以30例门诊常规体检患者为对照组,彩色多普勒检查对照组腹腔干二维声像改变,并测量起始段血流PSV。结果彩色多普勒超声共检出24例腹腔干动脉狭窄,其中起始段粥样硬化斑块16例,血栓栓塞7例,孤立性夹层动脉瘤并血栓形成1例。狭窄处血流PSV最高为420 cm/s,最低为228 cm/s,平均为(304.52±53.75)cm/s。对照组腹腔干起始段血流PSV最高为178 cm/s,最低为81 cm/s,平均为(113.33±19.70)cm/s。狭窄组患者腹腔干狭窄处血流速度明显高于对照组起始段血流速度,差异有统计学意义(t=16.242,P<0.000 1)。结论彩色多普勒超声检查对腹腔干狭窄诊断价值较高,能够准确显示腹腔干狭窄的部位、狭窄程度和血流动力学的改变,对腹痛患者的病因筛选有重要的临床意义。